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2024: Year of the Tornado

announcements historic tornadoes newsletter science May 04, 2024

This has been an absolutely crazy week or so, hasn't it?  And it looks like we're just getting started!

Check out Tomer Burg's animation of the last week's storm reports!

THE YEAR OF THE TORNADO

Over the last several months, meteorologists had been suggesting that 2024 would be a big tornado year.  A lot was made of the impact of high sea-surface temperatures in the Western Gulf of Mexico and the transition from El Nino to La Nina.

But as March rolled into April, below normal tornado activity continued. Several big events occurred, but photogenic tornadoes were few and far between.

One exception was a local outbreak of tornadoes that struck Iowa on April 16th. Paul Spomer caught this amazing, sinuous tornado just north of the surface low:


And Adam Lucio and Chelsea Burnett filmed this stout stovepipe near Salem, Iowa.


However, these were fairly unusual events during a fairly quiet season.  Then, on April 26th, all hell broke loose.

This day was part of a much-anticipated stretch of severe weather. However, the next day was supposed to be the big day, as the big trough ejected over the Plains.


Even so, with strong instability on a lifting warm front, it was clear that a big tornado event could occur. But somewhat surprisingly, the Storm Prediction Center had only assessed the risk at 3 out of 5 (i.e., Enhanced). 

The day got started quickly.  Shortly after noon CDT, a rope tornado formed near Ravenna, NE.

 Not long after, a wedge tornado formed near Elba, NE.


It quickly became obvious that we were dealing with a major tornado outbreak. Towards the late afternoon, another powerful supercell produced a major tornado near Lincoln, NE.

This storm was the most prolific of the event, also producing this mammoth wedge at Elkhorn.

Finally, the event closed out with a spectacular and powerful large tornado near Harlan, Iowa.


The DOWs measured winds greater than 200 mph in this funnel!

The next day, April 27th, was expected to be a major tornado outbreak. Though the daytime activity was disappointing for chasers, the after-dark period became the night of the twisters.

Expectations lowered on April 28th, as SPC downgraded the risk level But in typical 2024 fashion, it overproduced.  Check out this photogenic cone near Crowder, Oklahoma!

Mercifully, the atmosphere took a short break on April 29th.  (Technically one tornado was reported.)

Then on April 30th, craziness ensued once more. A vicious EF3 rope tornado struck Westmoreland, Kansas.

Then, that evening, a probable violent tornado spun in rural regions of southwest Oklahoma.

On May 1st, the most impressive tornado formed early -- near Clarendon, Texas.

On May 2nd, a ultra-strong cone to stovepipe tornado struck rural areas outside Abilene, Texas.

Storm chaser Freddy McKinney heroically worked to get an injured family of 4 to the hospital!  Everyone is doing okay.

Finally, on May 3rd, a powerful-looking tornado ground the dirt near Silver, Texas.

Amazingly, as I write this, another Enhanced risk for strong tornadoes has been assessed for West Texas!  It's been a wild year, to say the least.


CHASE TIP OF THE MONTH

One of the biggest lessons I've learned in storm chasing:

Commit to a target storm as early as you can -- but never earlier.

Tactical pauses can be helpful, to wait for more info to make the best choice.

But once you've decided, go for it immediately. Delays can be costly. 


TORNADO SCIENCE MINUTE

During severe weather season, the "negative tilt" trough is seen as a telltale sign of an impending tornado outbreak.

And no surprise - most big outbreaks have had negative tilts. But did you know that 4 out of the Top 10 violent tornado outbreaks had a positive tilt?

Check out this X/Twitter thread I wrote a while back!


ANNOUNCEMENTS

A bit of news!

I'm excited to announce that I'm now offering one-on-one chase forecast consultations.

So, if you need a little forecasting or storm selection help while you're on your chase-cation, check it out here!

___________

Well, that's all for now.  Hope you enjoyed it!

- Gabe Garfield

 

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