4 Critical Storm Chasing Mistakes (And How to Avoid Them)

Today, I’ll teach you about the 4 non-weather failure modes and 3 ways to avoid them.

Chasers invest thousands in gear, drive countless miles, and obsess over forecasts.  But like fumbling the ball on the one-yard line in football, a single mistake can ruin the game.  Understanding what can go wrong—and how to avoid it—can make all the difference.

Most chasers fail because of preventable errors, not the weather.  Failure is often caused by ignorance, and sometimes by a poor memory. Whatever the case, knowing why you messed up is key to improving.  After 25+ years of chasing, I’ve learned that 60-80% of success comes from knowing what not to do.

Here’s the antidote:

• Prepare thoroughly

• Make quick, thoughtful decisions

• Stay flexible

Here’s where things can go wrong.

It’s incredible that any chasers see tornadoes at all.  So much has to go right, and so much can go wrong. Failures in chasing typically fall into four categories:

1.       Planning

2.       Timing

3.       Judgment

4.       Logistics

Planning Failures

Mistakes often happen when you fail to prepare properly. For instance, making a rushed forecast because you didn’t leave enough time for it.  That’s exactly what happened to me on May 22, 2011, the day of the infamous Joplin, Missouri EF5 tornado.

I made a careless forecast, assuming the recent storm pattern in southeastern Oklahoma would continue, based on a tornado I had seen near Tushka on April 19th.  If I had been more thorough, I would’ve easily recognized that northeast Oklahoma or southeast Kansas was a better target.

Another planning failure is not assigning roles properly within your chase team.  For example, if your chase partner isn’t good at navigating, it’s not a great idea to let them lead during a High risk chase.

Timing Failures

As every storm chaser knows, the weather doesn’t wait for you. You need to respond quickly, or you’ll miss the opportunity.

For example, on May 9, 2016, I left Norman, Oklahoma, about 30 minutes later than planned. I arrived at my target storm just as the photogenic and violent Katie tornado was dissipating.

On April 5, 2003, my chase group spent several minutes debating which storm to target. We finally chose a supercell near Throckmorton, Texas, but we arrived 15 minutes too late, just after its only tornado had dissipated.

It’s also possible to leave too soon. On May 1, 2018, my team targeted a storm that would later produce the EF3 wedge tornado near Tescott, Kansas. But because the storm didn’t look promising and another one seemed better, we left about an hour before the tornado formed.

Judgment Failures

Sometimes, despite knowing better, we make poor decisions.

For instance, during the May 24, 2011, violent tornado outbreak in Oklahoma, my team first targeted a middle storm in a short line of supercells. While middle storms can occasionally produce tornadoes, the “tail-end Charlie” (the southern storm) has a proven reputation for producing the biggest tornadoes. We ignored that wisdom and missed the massive Hydro mile-wide tornado.

Another judgment failure happened on April 21, 2007. My gut told me to head south to a storm near Tulia, Texas, but I followed a storm-chasing legend near Amarillo instead. I didn’t have the confidence to challenge him, and we missed an EF3 tornado that hit Tulia directly.

Logistical Failures

Logistical issues can also derail a chase. For example, you might choose to chase a storm on a gravel road, only to have it turn into mud—effectively ending your chase.

On May 22, 2010, during the VORTEX-2 project, my team chased a weak supercell in southeast Wyoming. Our hotel was in North Platte, Nebraska, three hours away. After arriving at 4 a.m. and being exhausted, we decided to call the next day off. As a result, we missed the Bowdle, South Dakota, violent tornadic supercell, which would’ve been the highlight of the entire experiment.

How to Avoid These Mistakes

1. Prepare thoroughly for your chases. Check the tires, oil, and charge your camera batteries. These may seem like small tasks, but neglecting them can ruin your chase. Also, make sure everyone is in the role that suits their abilities. If your chase partner has never navigated, a High risk day may not be the time to let them try it.

2. Make quick but careful decisions. Being too slow could mean you miss the storm, but rushing without consideration can lead to mistakes. As coach John Wooden said, “Be quick, but don’t hurry.”

3. Be willing to change your approach. It’s easy to get locked into one strategy while chasing, but none of us can predict exactly how things will unfold. Approach each chase with humility and be ready to adjust. Being flexible might be the reason you end up bagging a tornado when no one else does.

Well, that's all for now.  Hope you enjoyed it!

- Gabe Garfield

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